Understanding Bitcoin Market Cycles

15 min readinteractive

Master Bitcoin's four-year cycles and their relationship to halvings.

The Four-Year Cycle:

  • Halving Event: Supply shock every 4 years
  • Accumulation Phase: Smart money buys
  • Bull Run: Parabolic price increase
  • Blow-off Top: Euphoria and crash
  • Bear Market: 70-85% drawdown
  • Bottom Formation: Despair and disbelief

Historical Patterns:

  • Each cycle reaches new ATH
  • Diminishing returns over time
  • Lengthening cycles theory